Hamilton Housing Supply 2026: Why Waiting for More Homes Is a Weak Plan

Hamilton Housing Supply 2026: Why Waiting for More Homes Is a Weak Plan

Written by Daniel Zareh, REALTOR® — licensed since 2006, serving Hamilton, Stoney Creek, Winona and Grimsby.
Last reviewed September 15, 2026. Supply figures verified against CMHC's Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report; Hamilton figures from InfoSparks / ITSO; national sales figures from CREA's August release. Rate section updated October 28, 2026, the day the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.50%.

CMHC put out its Fall Housing Supply Report on September 10. The headline number is that Canada needs somewhere between 417,000 and 469,000 new homes a year for the next decade to get affordability back to where it was before the pandemic. We are on track for roughly 231,000. Call it half.

That got written up everywhere as a housing shortage story. The more useful part is buried further in, and it matters if you are a buyer sitting on the sidelines in Hamilton waiting for more choice to show up.

The construction that is collapsing is the kind you would actually buy.

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What the report actually says

Purpose-built rental now accounts for two-thirds of all apartment starts in Canada's major markets. Condominium and ground-oriented construction — the ownership side — has fallen off sharply.

Toronto is the clearest case, and it is the market closest to us. Developers started 156 condominium units in Toronto in the first half of 2026. The decade average is around 7,000 a year. Rental starts in the region rose 82% over the same period and outpaced condo starts for the first time since 1994. CMHC says Toronto needs 21,000 to 26,000 additional starts a year to close its gap.

CMHC's own line is the one worth holding onto: "The greater long-term risk may not be excessive rental construction. Instead, it may be insufficient condominium and ground-oriented housing supply."

The reasons given are weak presales, poor investor demand, high resale inventory, and government incentives that make rental projects pencil better than ownership ones. Deputy chief economist Aled ab Iorwerth put it plainly: "new construction is slowing faster than demand."

One honest caveat before I go further. That report does not break out Hamilton. Its detailed sections cover Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal and Halifax. So on the construction side I am reasoning from the Toronto numbers and the national drivers, not from a Hamilton starts figure, and I would rather say that than dress up an estimate as a fact. The Hamilton resale numbers below are our own.

Hamilton removed the cost barrier. It did not fix the problem.

Here is where it gets interesting locally.

On August 26, Hamilton was confirmed for $572 million under the Canada-Ontario Development Charge Reduction Program. In exchange, development charges on all residential construction are eliminated entirely from March 30, 2026 through March 31, 2029. The federal release puts the saving at up to $100,442 per home, and up to roughly $230,000 once the HST relief is stacked on top. The city estimates the deal could clear the way for more than 31,000 homes.

That is about as aggressively as a city can act on construction costs. I wrote about what that deal means for buyers when it landed, and I still think it is real money.

But read it against what CMHC says is actually stopping projects. Not municipal fees. Presales and investor demand. A builder who cannot sell enough units to finance a tower does not break ground because the development charges got cheaper. The charges were never the binding constraint.

So Hamilton has 31,000 homes it has made cheaper to build, sitting behind a wall that money does not move.

At the end of the day, an approval is not a start, and a start is not a home you can move into. Those are three different things, and the gap between them is where the waiting happens. Eastgate Square is the clearest local example — council approved it in December 2024, the City still hasn't issued site plan approval, and it's now at the Ontario Land Tribunal.

What that looks like in Hamilton

The presale problem CMHC describes is visible in our own numbers.

Hamilton condo apartments averaged about $375,000 in August 2026, with 8.2 months of inventory and 76 days to sell. That is the softest segment in the city by a distance — detached sits at 4.1 months and townhouses at 4.4. One caveat worth stating: that condo average rests on 28 regional sales for the month, so treat it as roughly where condos trade rather than a precise reading of direction.

Now set that against downtown pre-construction, which is running roughly $950 to $1,260 per square foot. When resale is meaningfully cheaper than new, and there is eight months of it sitting there, presales dry up. When presales dry up, nothing starts. That is the same mechanism CMHC is describing nationally, playing out on our own doorstep.

Check the occupancy dates on Hamilton's downtown pre-construction board and it gets more concrete. As of September 15, 2026, the projects still selling downtown carry occupancy dates of 2027, 2028 and 2030. Corktown is 2028. The Rebecca is 2030. Television City and 1107 Main are 2027.

Those are not delivery dates you can plan a move around. They are the pipeline, and pre-construction dates move — I have never seen a project come in early.

If pre-construction is on your list anyway, my breakdown of downtown Hamilton pre-con with honest cash flow estimates covers what to check before you sign anything.

So what does a buyer do with this

Most people waiting right now are waiting for one of two things: more choice, or lower rates. It is worth being honest about both.

On choice. The resale market is the choice you have, and right now it is a decent one — Hamilton had 1,911 properties sitting at the end of August and 44 days on market, up from 37 a year ago. Nationally, CREA reported August sales down 6.9% year over year with 4.8 months of inventory, unchanged for a fourth straight month. That is a slow, balanced market, which genuinely favours a buyer. But the new-build ownership pipeline behind it is thinning, not filling. Waiting for a wave of new ownership housing to arrive and hand you leverage is waiting for something the data says is not being built.

There is also a seasonal catch. Hamilton listings and sales both fell about 20% in August. The sellers who pulled their listings this year mostly did not sell — they stopped trying, and they come back in the spring, and the buyers come back with them.

On rates — and this one has now been answered. CREA's senior economist Shaun Cathcart said on September 15 that "a rate hike is not only back on the table for this year but already priced in by markets." He was right. On October 28, 2026 the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% — its first increase since 2023, after seven straight holds and a year at 2.25%. The next decision is December 9, 2026. So if your plan for waiting assumed rates would fall from here, that assumption has just been tested and it did not hold. I've written up what the increase actually does to a variable payment, a renewal and a pre-approval, because the answer is different depending on which one you have.

Now the part that cuts the other way, because it would be dishonest to leave it out.

Prices are still down. Hamilton's average was off 4.1% year over year in August, and the national MLS Home Price Index was down 3%. Anyone who waited the last two years in this market was right. I am not going to stand here and tell you that waiting has been a mistake, because it hasn't been.

What I am saying is narrower. "More supply is coming" is the weakest of the reasons to wait, and it is the one most people are leaning on. If you are waiting because your down payment is not where you want it, or your job situation is unsettled, or you have not found something you actually like — those are good reasons and I would tell you to hold. Just pick the right reason.

Common Questions

Is Canada really only building half the homes it needs?
That is CMHC's assessment as of September 10, 2026. They put the requirement at 417,000 to 469,000 starts a year through 2036 to restore pre-pandemic affordability, against a current trajectory of about 231,000. The shortfall works out to 187,000 to 238,000 homes a year.

Does the CMHC report say anything about Hamilton specifically?
No. The detailed city sections are Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal and Halifax. Hamilton is not broken out, so anything you read applying those construction figures directly to Hamilton is an inference, not a finding.

If development charges were eliminated, why aren't more homes being built?
Because CMHC identifies the constraint as weak presales and investor demand rather than municipal fees. Cheaper charges improve a project's economics but do not create buyers for it. The saving is real; it just is not the thing that was blocking construction.

Should I wait for prices to drop further before buying in Hamilton?
It depends on your timeline and what you are buying, and I would rather run your actual numbers than give you a slogan. Prices are still down year over year, so waiting has not been punished. But the rate side of that bet just moved against it — the Bank raised to 2.50% on October 28, 2026 — so if you are waiting, do it for a reason that holds up rather than for a cut that is not coming on any schedule anyone can name.

Is it better to buy resale or pre-construction in Hamilton right now?
Resale is cheaper per square foot than downtown pre-construction today, there is 8.2 months of condo inventory to choose from, and you can move in. Pre-construction buys you time and a low initial commitment, with occupancy dates running to 2030 on some downtown projects. Different tools for different situations, and the honest answer depends on when you actually need a place to live.

Will rental construction help homebuyers at all?
Indirectly and slowly. More rental supply eases rent pressure, which helps people save. It does not add to the stock of homes you can buy, which is the point CMHC is making.

If you want the real numbers for your situation

Send me your budget and the two things that matter most to you — a school catchment, a commute, a garage, whatever it actually is. I will send back what is genuinely available at that number in Hamilton and Stoney Creek right now, what is in the pre-construction pipeline at that price, and when it would realistically be ready.

If the honest answer is that six more months of saving puts you in a materially better position, I will tell you that and show you the math rather than talk you into something now.

A couple of other things worth reading: my Hamilton market guide, my read on what the October rate increase means if you're renewing or pre-approved, and my longer take on whether now is a good time to buy here. If a rental suite is part of the plan, here's what Hamilton's second suite rules allow. And if you're selling as well as buying, my August seller update breaks the month down by area — Ancaster, Stoney Creek, Binbrook and the Mountain all did different things.

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Call or text 416-276-0052   Email: daniel@zarehhomes.com

Or send me your budget and priorities below.

Daniel Zareh is a licensed REALTOR® with over 20 years of experience serving Hamilton, Stoney Creek, Grimsby, Burlington, Oakville and Mississauga. Hamilton figures are from InfoSparks / ITSO for August 2026; national figures are for August and September 2026. Policy rate figures are current to the Bank of Canada's October 28, 2026 announcement. All change monthly.