October 2026 Market Update: Hamilton, Stoney Creek and Grimsby
Written by Daniel Zareh, REALTOR® — licensed since 2006, serving Hamilton, Stoney Creek, Ancaster, Binbrook and Grimsby.
Last reviewed November 5, 2026. Every figure here is October 2026 sold data from my own InfoSparks / ITSO pull, taken November 4, with year-over-year change against October 2025.
Hamilton's median came in at $660,000 in October, down 5.7 percent from last October.
Four of the city's ten areas went up. Ancaster rose 6.3 percent, Glanbrook 4.0, Waterdown 2.9, Hamilton Centre 0.4. Hamilton East went the other way at down 13.3 percent. That is 19.6 points between the strongest area and the weakest, in the same city, in the same month.
Here's the part worth your time though. I checked what was behind those four increases, and none of them is a price increase. That is the real story in October's numbers, and it cuts both ways — one area's drop is overstated for the same reason.
One thing to read before the Hamilton numbers
Hamilton here means the whole amalgamated city — Ancaster, Dundas, Flamborough, Waterdown, Glanbrook, Stoney Creek and the four old city districts, all in one figure. Same ground I used in September, so the two months line up properly.
Stoney Creek sits inside that Hamilton total and also gets its own section below. Just don't add the two together. Grimsby is a separate market entirely.
Hamilton — softer on price, thinner on both sides
438 sales in October, down 5 percent from last October. New listings were 1,005, down 14.7 percent. Active listings were 2,067, down 14.4 percent.
Read those three together, because the order matters. Sales fell 5 percent. Supply fell three times faster. Months of inventory came in at 4.8, down from 5.1 a year ago, and homes sold at 96.8 percent of asking in an average of 40 days.
So prices are down while there is less to choose from than a year ago, not more. That is a smaller market rather than a flooding one. It is also the combination that confuses people most, because the price number and the supply number are pointing in different directions. Both are true.
Four areas went up. None of them went up on price.
This is where the city number stops being useful, and where most of what you'll read about October will be wrong.
In all four of the areas whose median rose, the same thing happened: detached houses made up a bigger share of what sold than they did last October. And in all four, the detached median itself was flat or down.
| Area, October 2026 | Median, all types | Detached share of sales | Detached median |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ancaster | $1,064,000 (+6.3%) | 74% → 82% | $1,135,000 (-2.6%) |
| Glanbrook | $750,000 (+4.0%) | 55% → 65% | $828,750 (-6.4%) |
| Waterdown | $875,000 (+2.9%) | 42% → 57% | $1,007,500 (-8.2%) |
| Hamilton Centre | $483,000 (+0.4%) | 75% → 84% | $500,000 (-0.5%) |
A median is the middle sale. Sell more houses and fewer townhouses and condos, and the middle sale moves up on its own, without a single house being worth more than it was.
That is what happened in those four areas. Waterdown is the clearest case — detached went from 42 percent of sales to 57 percent, which pushed the all-types median up 2.9 percent while the actual detached median fell 8.2 percent. If you own a detached house in Waterdown, the plus 2.9 is not your number. The minus 8.2 is closer.
So if somebody tells you Ancaster was up 6 percent in October, they have read the right figure and drawn the wrong conclusion. I went deeper on how that area splits in the Ancaster piece, and the same divide is doing the work here.
The one area where the drop is real
The mix thing cuts the other way too, and Hamilton East is the proof.
Hamilton East's median fell 13.3 percent, the worst in the city. Its detached share of sales barely moved — 79 percent last October, 77 percent this October. And its detached median fell 13.0 percent, essentially the same as the all-types figure.
Nothing is disguising that one. When the mix holds still and the median still drops 13 percent, the drop is in the price. Hamilton East is the area where October was genuinely harder, and it is also the area where the city-wide minus 5.7 understates what an owner actually experienced.
All ten areas, October
| Area, October 2026 | Median, all types | Sales | Detached median | Detached sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamborough | $1,106,500 (-5.4%) | 12 | $1,106,500 (-8.4%) | 12 |
| Ancaster | $1,064,000 (+6.3%) | 39 | $1,135,000 (-2.6%) | 32 |
| Dundas | $935,000 (-4.2%) | 28 | $1,106,000 (+4.1%) | 18 |
| Waterdown | $875,000 (+2.9%) | 21 | $1,007,500 (-8.2%) | 12 |
| Glanbrook | $750,000 (+4.0%) | 37 | $828,750 (-6.4%) | 24 |
| Stoney Creek | $705,000 (-6.0%) | 56 | $770,000 (-10.5%) | 35 |
| Hamilton Mountain | $629,250 (-4.7%) | 106 | $665,000 (-2.9%) | 78 |
| Hamilton West | $615,000 (-10.2%) | 28 | $670,844 (-9.0%) | 18 |
| Hamilton East | $539,400 (-13.3%) | 56 | $570,000 (-13.0%) | 43 |
| Hamilton Centre | $483,000 (+0.4%) | 55 | $500,000 (-0.5%) | 46 |
One note in October's favour: every one of the ten areas did at least twelve sales this month. That did not happen in September, when Flamborough's 24 percent drop rested on eight sales and I had to tell you not to lean on it. This month there is no area where the all-types figure is just a couple of houses moving the middle.
The Mountain, Stoney Creek, Hamilton East and Hamilton Centre did 273 sales between them, about 62 percent of the city. Those four ran from down 13.3 percent to up 0.4. That range is the honest read on Hamilton in October, not the single city figure.
By property type — and why the condo number needs reading twice
| Hamilton, October 2026 | Median price | Sales | Days | % of list | Months supply |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detached | $710,000 (-4.0%) | 318 | 37 | 96.8% | 4.4 |
| Semi-detached | $602,500 (-18.2%) | 16 | 42 | 98.7% | 4.1 |
| Townhouse | $572,750 (-8.4%) | 70 | 43 | 97.3% | 4.4 |
| Condo apartment | $341,250 (-21.6%) | 34 | 62 | 96.5% | 8.3 |
Detached is the real read at 318 sales, 73 percent of everything that sold. Median $710,000, down 4 percent, 37 days, 4.4 months of supply. Tighter than the city overall, and a much smaller drop than the headline.
Semis at minus 18.2 percent is sixteen sales. The semi average only fell 4.9 percent over the same sixteen. When the two disagree that violently on a sample that size, it is which houses closed, not what semis are worth. I would not price one off that figure.
Condos are the genuine soft pocket, and the softness is in the supply, not the price drop. 8.3 months of inventory against 4.4 for detached. 62 days to sell against 37. That is a buyer's market sitting inside a balanced one, and those two numbers are hard counts that no mix effect can explain away.
The minus 21.6 percent median is a different matter. The condo average fell 13.2 percent over the same 34 sales. When the median falls that much faster than the average, more of the cheap end sold this October than last — the middle of the stack moved down further than the stack itself did. Part of that 21.6 is what sold. Anyone quoting you a 22 percent condo crash is quoting a mix on 34 city-wide sales.
Stoney Creek — where the mix flatters the headline
Stoney Creek District did 56 sales, down 1.8 percent, at a median of $705,000, down 6.0 percent. 38 days, 97.2 percent of asking, 5.5 months of supply.
That minus 6.0 is the number most people will quote, and it is too kind. Detached went from 54 percent of Stoney Creek's sales to 63 percent, and the detached median fell 10.5 percent to $770,000. So the same mix shift that pushed Ancaster's number up held Stoney Creek's number down to 6 percent when detached owners actually saw closer to 10.
The supply side moved the way it did everywhere: new listings 157, down 19.9 percent, and active listings down 20.0 percent. Townhouses were the active segment at 16 sales, median $585,000, down 15.7 percent, 33 days. Condos were five sales and semis had none, so there is nothing honest to say about either.
Grimsby — busier, and genuinely cheaper
Grimsby is the one market where the price drop is not a mix story at all.
| Grimsby, October 2026 | Median price | Sales | Days | % of list | Months supply |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detached | $799,900 (-9.1%) | 23 | 25 | 97.6% | 4.2 |
| Townhouse | $505,000 (-16.9%) | 5* | 49 | 97.4% | 4.3 |
| Condo apartment | $417,500 (-0.6%) | 6* | 31 | 95.1% | 7.4 |
35 sales, up 59 percent on last October, while Hamilton was down 5. The median was $683,000, down 7.1 percent, and homes sold in 30 days at 97.4 percent of asking.
Now apply the same test. Detached went from 55 percent of Grimsby's sales to 66 percent — the mix shifted toward houses, which should have pushed the median up. It fell 7.1 percent anyway, and detached on its own fell 9.1. That is a real price move, working against the mix rather than hiding behind it.
Which makes Grimsby the most interesting of the three this month: more buyers, faster sales, tight 25-day detached market, and prices down around 9 percent on houses. Sellers there are not sitting. They are just getting less.
An asterisk means fewer than ten sales, so read it as a rough guide to price rather than a trend. I would not quote the Grimsby townhouse figure to anyone.
So what do you actually do with this
If you own anything and you want to know what October did to you. Start with your area's detached median, not the city figure and not your area's all-types figure. In eight of the ten areas those three numbers disagree, and in Waterdown they disagree by eleven points.
If you're buying a condo in Hamilton. The window is real. 8.3 months of supply and 62 days to sell against 4.4 and 37 for detached. Go in with a list of buildings rather than units, and read the status certificate and reserve fund before you fall for a floor plan. Just don't price your offer off the 21.6 percent — the building's own sales history will tell you far more than a city figure built on 34 sales.
If you're earlier than that, the 2026 Home Buyer's Guide covers the cash you actually need, the rebate programs and how an offer works from accepted to keys.
If you're buying detached in Grimsby. Different game. 97.6 percent of list in 25 days means a well-priced house does not sit, even with the median down 9 percent. Have financing settled before you look. A soft price trend and a fast market can absolutely coexist, and they are right now.
If you're selling in Hamilton. Your competition is down 14 percent year over year, and detached is going at 96.8 percent of asking in 37 days. That percentage is measured against the last asking price, not the first. Price it right on day one and you land in that number. Price it high and you spend six weeks working down to the same place with less leverage.
If you're selling in Hamilton East. Yours is the one area where I would not soften the read. Down 13 percent on detached, with no mix effect behind it. Price to the last sixty days on your own streets, not to the city number and not to last spring.
Common questions
Are house prices going down in Hamilton?
The October median across all types was $660,000, down 5.7 percent year over year. Detached, which is 73 percent of sales, was $710,000, down 4.0 percent. So yes, but less than the headline suggests, and very unevenly — Hamilton East was down 13.3 percent while Ancaster's figure read up 6.3. Inventory is also tighter than a year ago at 4.8 months, so it reads as a smaller market rather than a falling one.
Did Ancaster really go up 6 percent?
The all-types median did. But detached went from 74 to 82 percent of Ancaster's sales, and the detached median itself fell 2.6 percent. The increase is what sold, not what houses are worth.
Why is the condo median down 22 percent?
Partly price and partly mix. The condo average fell 13.2 percent over the same 34 sales, and when the median falls much faster than the average it means more of the cheap end sold. The supply figures are the solid part of the condo story: 8.3 months and 62 days to sell.
Is Grimsby still worth looking at?
Sales were up 59 percent and detached sold in 25 days at 97.6 percent of asking, so demand is there. Prices are genuinely down, around 9 percent on detached. Busy and cheaper at the same time, which is unusual.
How long is it taking to sell?
October averages were 40 days in Hamilton, 38 in Stoney Creek and 30 in Grimsby. By type in Hamilton: detached 37, semis 42, townhouses 43, condos 62.
Which Hamilton does this cover?
The whole amalgamated city, including Ancaster, Dundas, Flamborough, Waterdown, Glanbrook and Stoney Creek. If you see a smaller Hamilton figure quoted somewhere, it is usually the old city proper, which leaves those communities out.
Your street, not the citywide median
Everything above is an area number, and October was the month that showed exactly how little an area number can tell you. Four areas read as up when nothing in them got more expensive. One area read as mildly soft when detached owners lost ten percent.
Nobody sells an area. You sell a specific house on a specific street, and the only numbers that price it are the ones that sold near you in the last sixty days.
Tell me where you are and what you are weighing up, and I'll pull those. Comparable sales within about a kilometre since August, sold prices rather than asking prices, a realistic range for your own place, and your net after commission, HST, legal and the mortgage discharge.
Buying instead? Tell me the area and the type and I'll send what is actually moving there, including the ones that sat and what they finally went for. In a month like this one, that list is worth more than the list of what's available.
And if the honest read is that this isn't your month, I'll tell you that. I just want to make sure you're making the right decision with the real numbers in front of you.
Call or text 416-276-0052 Email: daniel@zarehhomes.com
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Wondering what October did to your place?
Tell me where you are and I'll pull every comparable sale within about a kilometre of you since August — sold prices, not asking prices. You'll get a realistic range for your own place, plus your net after commission, HST, legal and the mortgage discharge. Buying instead? Tell me the area and the type, and I'll send what's actually moving there — including the ones that sat and what they finally went for.