Ontario Now Forecasts Home Prices Falling in 2026: What It Means for Hamilton, Burlington and Oakville
Written by Daniel Zareh, REALTOR® — licensed since 2006, serving Hamilton, Stoney Creek, Grimsby, Beamsville, Burlington and Oakville.
Last reviewed November 2, 2026. Every figure below comes from Ontario's 2026 Fall Economic Statement, tabled October 29, 2026, and is sourced at the bottom.
The Province released its fall economic statement on October 29. It got covered as a deficit story, which is fair enough — that's the headline most outlets ran.
But sitting inside it is the government's own housing forecast. And it's been revised down.
This is worth five minutes because it's one of the few forecasts that isn't trying to sell you anything. It's the Ministry of Finance planning its own budget around what it thinks the market will do. When that gets marked down, it tells you something.
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What the Province actually changed
Back in the spring budget, Ontario had 2026 as a recovery year. Now it doesn't.
| Ontario forecast for 2026 | Spring budget | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Average resale price | +0.8% | −2.4% |
| Number of resales | +9.1% | −0.7% |
| Housing starts | 64,800 | 64,700 |
Prices moved 3.2 points, from a small gain to a real decline. Sales moved 9.8 points, from a strong recovery to flat. Starts barely budged this year — the cut there lands later, and I'll come back to it.
For context, Ontario's average resale price actually fell 4.4% in 2025. So the Province is now forecasting two down years in a row.
Here's the rest of its forecast for prices:
- 2027: +1.4% (the budget had +2.7%)
- 2028: +4.2% (unchanged)
- 2029: +4.6% (the budget had +4.0%)
Do the compounding on that and it's the line I'd actually remember from this document. Even if every one of those years lands exactly as forecast, Ontario prices end 2029 roughly 8% above where they ended 2025. Four years, 8%. That's the Province's own optimistic case.
Two things this number isn't
I want to be careful here, because a government forecast gets quoted as fact and it isn't one.
It's a forecast, and it's already been wrong once. The projection is built on a private-sector average taken as of September 11, 2026. The spring version of the same exercise had this year up slightly, and the Province has just marked it down by three points. The next one can move too, in either direction.
It's province-wide. An Ontario-wide average blends Toronto condos with Ottawa semis with Windsor bungalows. A 2.4% annual decline across all of that tells you almost nothing about a specific street. For comparison, Hamilton's median is down about 33% from the February 2022 peak — I went through the actual local numbers in what prices did here from the Covid peak to now, and I'd rather link you there than run the whole table again.
So use this for direction, not for pricing.
The sentence in it I'd pay most attention to
The statement names where the weakness is, and it's specific. The condominium segment is the weakest part of the market, it says, "especially in the Greater Toronto Area, where lower investor demand and unsold units have held back prices."
That's the Province saying out loud what the condo data has been saying for two years. Lower investor demand and unsold units — not a general housing slump, a particular product with a particular problem. I broke down what actually happened there, and why low-rise in our markets behaves differently, in this piece on the GTA pre-construction market.
If you own a condo you rent out, that sentence is about you. If you own a freehold house in Stoney Creek, it mostly isn't.
What it means if you own in Hamilton or Stoney Creek
Not much, this year. More in 2027.
A flat sales forecast means the number of buyers isn't growing, so your competition when you list is other listings, same as it's been. That hasn't changed.
What has changed is the recovery timing. The spring forecast had sales up 9% this year and prices turning positive. If you were holding off listing until the market came back, the Province just moved that back by about a year. Waiting for 2027 is a different plan than waiting for Q4.
For where your area actually sits by property type, my most recent local market update has it broken out, and that's the number I'd price off — not this one.
What it means if you own in Grimsby or Beamsville
Read it with more caution than most.
Grimsby and Beamsville are small markets. A month can turn on twenty or thirty sales, and the mix of what sells moves the median more than values do. A provincial forecast built on an Ontario-wide average has very little to say about a town that size.
Where it does matter is on the new-build side. Both towns have real pre-construction supply in the pipeline, and builders read these forecasts. A weaker price outlook tends to show up first as incentives and slower launches, not as lower list prices. If you're looking at a project out here, that's the thing to ask about.
What it means if you own in Burlington or Oakville
The condo line is the part that applies.
Both markets have been holding up better than the province on freehold. Oakville in particular has given back less from the peak than Hamilton or Burlington did.
But Oakville also has an enormous approved pipeline it's barely started building, and the Province's thinner starts forecast doesn't change what's already approved. I went through which Oakville homes that supply actually competes with in Oakville's pipeline versus its 2031 target.
One honest limit: I don't have Burlington or Oakville resale numbers in my own monthly data pull, so when I quote those two markets I'm using the board's published reports and I say so. I won't give you an aggregator average instead.
The starts cut is the part with the longer tail
This is the piece almost nobody will report, and it outlasts the price forecast.
Ontario cut its housing starts projection for each of the next three years:
| Housing starts | Spring budget | Now | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 70,300 | 65,100 | −5,200 |
| 2028 | 76,800 | 71,700 | −5,100 |
| 2029 | 80,500 | 75,400 | −5,100 |
That's 15,400 fewer homes than the Province expected six months ago, across three years.
Look at 2027 on its own. The budget had starts rising about 5,500 next year. The new forecast has them rising about 400. Next year is now, on the Province's own numbers, essentially flat.
Homes started in 2027 get finished in 2029 and 2030. So this is a supply number for the back half of the decade, and it points the same way the condo pipeline does. Fewer things being started now means fewer things finishing then.
I'm not going to turn that into a prediction that prices spike. Borrowing costs and population growth will have more to say about it than supply will. But if your plan is to wait for a wave of new homes to give you a better price, this document is evidence against that plan, and I went through the rest of why in why waiting for more supply is a weak strategy.
Three short reads, by where you sit
If you're buying. A forecast of modest growth is a reason to buy on the house, not on the market. If the place works for you and the payment works at the rate you're actually quoted, the Province's annual average doesn't change that. If you're buying to flip inside three years, it does.
If you're selling. Price it to today, not to the recovery. The thing worth doing before you list is working out your net, because that number decides more than the forecast does — here's every cost with the math on it.
If you own rentals. The condo sentence is your sentence. New purpose-built rental is taking the top of the market, and the Province is telling you investor demand for resale condos is still soft. Go and look at your own rent roll rather than a provincial average.
Two dated things sit just after this, and they could move the picture: the federal budget lands November 5, and the October board numbers for our markets land in the same week. If either changes the read, I'll update this.
Common Questions
Is the Ontario government predicting a housing crash?
No. It's forecasting average resale prices down 2.4% in 2026, then small gains from 2027. That's a soft market, not a crash. It also follows a 4.4% decline in 2025, so it's a second down year rather than a sudden break.
Does this forecast apply to my house?
Not directly. It's an Ontario-wide average across every market and property type. Your price comes from recent sales of homes like yours, in your area, in the last couple of months.
When does the Province expect prices to recover?
It has 2027 up 1.4%, then 4.2% in 2028 and 4.6% in 2029. Compounded, that's roughly 8% above the 2025 level by the end of 2029. Slow and steady is the forecast, not a bounce.
Why are housing starts being cut if the government wants more homes built?
The forecast isn't a target, it's an estimate of what builders will actually start. Weaker prices and soft presales mean fewer projects get going, whatever the policy is. That's the gap between approvals and shovels.
Should I wait to buy until prices stop falling?
Nobody can time that, including me. What I'd say is that the Province's own forecast has the decline ending this year, and the cost of waiting isn't only the price — it's the rate you get and the choice available when you come back. The October rate increase is part of that math now.
Is this better data than what I see on the listing sites?
It's different data. This is a government forecast for the whole province. For what actually sold near you, use board figures or ask me — I'd avoid the aggregator estimates either way.
Your house, not a provincial average
Based on what this forecast says, the decision in front of most people isn't buy or sell. It's whether the plan they made six months ago still fits a market that's recovering a year later than expected.
Send me your address and roughly when you'd want to move. I'll come back with three things: every comparable sale within about a kilometre of you since August, a realistic range for your own place, and what's currently listed against it.
And if the honest read is that your timing is better next spring, I'll tell you that. I just want to make sure you're making the right decision with your own numbers in front of you rather than a provincial one.
Call or text 416-276-0052 Email: daniel@zarehhomes.com
Or send me your address and your timeline below and I'll pull the numbers.
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Keep reading
- What prices actually did here from the Covid peak to now
- What happened to GTA pre-construction, and what it means if you're buying new
- The Bank of Canada raised rates to 2.50% — what it changes
- The latest local numbers by area and property type
- What it actually costs to sell a house in Ontario
- Hamilton homes for sale — live listings and market data
Daniel Zareh is a licensed REALTOR® with over 20 years of experience serving Hamilton, Stoney Creek, Grimsby, Binbrook, Beamsville, Burlington, Oakville and Mississauga. All forecast figures — resale prices, resale volumes and housing starts for 2026 through 2029, and the comparison against the 2026 Budget — are from Chapter 2 of Ontario's 2026 Fall Economic Statement, tabled October 29, 2026, which cites the Canadian Real Estate Association and the Ontario Ministry of Finance and uses a private-sector forecast average as of September 11, 2026. The 2025 figures are actuals from the same table. Local price figures referenced here come from RAHB/Cornerstone and TRREB monthly board reports, as cited in the linked articles. Forecasts change; this is general information, not financial advice.
Want the number for your street, not the province?
Send me your address and roughly when you'd want to move. I'll come back with every comparable sale within about a kilometre of you since August, a realistic range for your place, and what's actually competing with it right now. If the honest read is that waiting suits you better, I'll tell you that straight.