Oakville's Housing Pipeline Is Nearly Double Its 2031 Target. It Started 2,104 Homes Last Year.
Written by Daniel Zareh, REALTOR® — licensed since 2006, serving Oakville, Burlington, Hamilton, Stoney Creek and Grimsby.
Last reviewed October 23, 2026. Every figure below comes from the Town of Oakville's own releases and was checked against them on October 23.
I hear the same line about Oakville from buyers and sellers both: nothing ever gets built there, so prices can only hold.
The Town's own housing report says something different. Permission to build isn't the constraint in Oakville. Building is.
Here's the straight read, and what it actually changes.
➤ See what's on the market in Oakville right now
The numbers, straight from the Town
Oakville's State of Housing Report went to Council on September 8, 2026. It covers the end of 2025.
| Oakville housing, end of 2025 | Units |
|---|---|
| Under review (applications in the system) | 45,443 |
| Draft approved | 3,560 |
| Approved | 13,831 |
| Total somewhere in the pipeline | ~62,800 |
| Under construction | 1,994 |
| Started in 2025 | 2,104 |
| Completed in 2025 | 3,543 |
Oakville's provincial target is 33,000 new homes by 2031.
So the pipeline is about 1.9 times the whole target. And 2,104 homes got started.
The gap that actually matters
Those two numbers sitting next to each other tell you where the bottleneck is.
Forget the 45,443 under review for a second, because an application under review is not a home. Plenty get withdrawn, cut down, appealed or shelved. Look just at the 13,831 units already approved. That's permission in hand.
Against 2,104 starts, that's roughly six years of building already permitted and waiting. That's simple arithmetic on last year's pace, not a forecast.
Run the target the same way. At 2,104 homes a year, 33,000 takes about fifteen years, not five.
One more piece of context, and I'll flag the caveat with it. In 2024 Oakville recorded 3,679 housing starts against a 2,420 target for that year, about 134% of it, and the Province paid the Town $13.2 million from the Building Faster Fund for beating it. So starts went down from 2024 to 2025, and not by a little.
The caveat: the 2024 figure is CMHC's count and the 2025 figure comes from the Town's own report. I can't confirm the two are measured identically, so treat that as direction, not a precise percentage. The direction is clear enough.
Where those homes are supposed to go
This part matters more than the totals, because it tells you which Oakville homes get new competition and which don't.
Oakville's Official Plan directs growth to what it calls Strategic Growth Areas rather than spreading it across established neighbourhoods. Council reinforced that in April 2026 when it adopted Official Plan Amendment 78, which added a housing section to the Livable Oakville Plan built around four goals: a wider range of housing types, complete communities, protecting existing rental housing, and long-term affordability.
Mayor Rob Burton's words on it: the updated policies are meant to "ensure future planning decisions support the right mix of housing and protect our current rental housing supply."
The biggest single piece of it is Midtown, around the Oakville GO station. On April 9, 2026 the Province issued four Minister's Zoning Orders covering four Midtown sites: 217 and 227 Cross Avenue plus 571, 581 and 587–595 Argus Road; 157 and 165 Cross Avenue; 166 South Service Road East; and 590 Argus Road.
What that package carries, per the Town:
- More than 6,800 new homes in 11 buildings.
- Original heights up to 56 storeys. The Province has since said it's working on refinements that would bring heights down to 38 storeys while keeping the same number of homes.
- Almost 4,000 construction jobs and roughly 400 permanent ones.
Worth knowing: the Town hasn't supported this in its current form. Oakville wants its own amendment, OPA 70, approved instead, which would allow 27 to 36 storeys depending on community benefits. The Town has said it will keep working through the Province's process and advocate for Council's position rather than go to court.
So Midtown is settled on paper and unsettled in practice. If you're buying there, that's the live question, not the price per square foot.
One honest gap: the Town's report doesn't break the pipeline down by housing type. So I can't tell you how much of the 62,800 is apartment versus townhouse versus detached. What I can tell you is that Midtown alone is 6,800 homes in towers, and that growth is being pointed at the growth areas, not at Glen Abbey or Joshua Creek.
If you own in Oakville
Don't let the pipeline number worry you about next year. A unit that's approved and not started isn't competing with your listing. It's not even a hole in the ground.
What it does tell you is the long-run picture, and the long-run picture is different by property type. If you own detached south of the QEW, almost none of this pipeline is aimed at you. If you own a condo or a townhouse near a growth area, a lot of it is.
And the supply story isn't what's moved Oakville prices lately. I went through the actual price history — Covid run-up, the drop since, and what it nets out to — in this piece comparing Hamilton, Burlington and Oakville. Oakville held up the best of the three. Worth reading alongside this.
If you're buying in Oakville
"Nothing gets built in Oakville so I can't lose" isn't the argument people think it is. Over ten years, a lot is permitted to get built. Just not where most buyers are looking.
The practical version:
- Detached in the established south and central pockets — the scarcity argument mostly holds. That stock isn't being added to.
- Condo and townhouse near Midtown, Uptown Core, Bronte GO or Palermo — be a tougher buyer. You're buying into the pocket where thousands of approved units sit, and you should be paid for that in price, not charged a premium for it.
Not saying this makes the north end a bad buy. It just means the "limited supply" line shouldn't be doing the work in your decision there. For the neighbourhood-by-neighbourhood read on where the lines actually fall, see my Oakville market guide.
If you're an investor, read the rental numbers
This is the part I'd want flagged if it were my money.
Oakville had 5,540 private rental apartment units as of December 2025, and only about 620 of those were added between 2022 and 2025. Three years, 620 units, in a town of this size.
Alongside that, Halton Region is leading seven assisted and supportive housing projects in Oakville totalling 242 units, 161 of them finished.
So purpose-built rental is barely moving in Oakville. That supports rents. The thing to watch is whether those approved condo units eventually land and get rented out instead — which is the same question I worked through for Burlington, where 641 purpose-built rental units came through at once. Different market, same mechanics.
And the broader point about approvals not being supply is one I've made closer to home too, in my piece on Hamilton housing supply.
What I'm watching next
- Whether the Province formally drops the Midtown heights to 38 storeys, and whether OPA 70 ever gets approved.
- Oakville's 2026 starts, when the next State of Housing Report lands. Two down years in a row would say something.
- Whether any of the 13,831 approved units actually break ground, and where.
- What the council elected on October 26, 2026 does with the Midtown file — I've set out the housing file Oakville's new council inherits, next to Hamilton's, Burlington's and Grimsby's.
Approvals get announced loudly. Starts get reported quietly. The quiet number is the one that touches your property.
Common questions
Does Oakville really have 62,800 homes coming?
No. That's everything in the planning system at the end of 2025, and most of it — 45,443 units — is still under review, not approved. Approved with permission in hand is 13,831.
Will this bring Oakville prices down?
Not on its own, and not soon. The Town started 2,104 homes last year. What moves prices is what buyers can borrow and what's listed nearby.
Is Oakville going to miss its 2031 target?
At 2025's pace, yes, by a wide margin. The Province tracks the pledge by housing starts, and Oakville started 2,104 against a 33,000-by-2031 goal.
Should I avoid buying a condo in Midtown?
Not avoid. Just price it honestly. There's a lot of approved competition in that pocket and the final heights aren't settled yet.
Your street, not the citywide pipeline
Send me your Oakville address and roughly when you might want to move. I'll come back with three things: the sold comparables closest to you, what's actually approved within walking distance of your home, and a realistic price range with your net after costs.
Here's the honest part. If your pocket has thousands of approved units next door, I'll tell you, and you may not love hearing it. I'd rather you know now than find out from a listing across the street.
Call or text 416-276-0052 Email: daniel@zarehhomes.com
Or fill in the form below and I'll get back to you with the comparables.
Keep reading
- What Hamilton, Burlington, Oakville and Grimsby's new councils inherit on housing — all four markets, and what it means in each
- Homes for sale in Oakville — the neighbourhood-by-neighbourhood guide
- What home prices actually did in Hamilton, Burlington and Oakville since 2020
- Burlington's 641 purpose-built rental units and what they mean for investors
- Hamilton housing supply, and why waiting for more homes is a weak plan
- Oakville homes for sale — live listings and market data
Daniel Zareh is a licensed REALTOR® with over 20 years of experience serving Hamilton, Stoney Creek, Grimsby, Binbrook, Beamsville, Burlington, Oakville and Mississauga. Housing figures are from the Town of Oakville's State of Housing Report as reported by the Town on September 9, 2026, covering the end of 2025; the 2024 starts and Building Faster Fund figures from the Town's September 24, 2025 release; the Midtown zoning order details from the Town's own Transit-Oriented Communities page, reflecting the Province's April 9, 2026 announcement. Figures and approvals change.
Wondering where your Oakville home sits in all this?
Send me your address and roughly when you might want to move. I'll pull the sold comparables near you, tell you what's approved within walking distance, and give you a realistic range. If staying put is the better call, I'll say so.