GTA Pre-Construction Condos: What Happened to the Market, and What It Means If You're Buying New

GTA Pre-Construction Condos: What Happened to the Market, and What It Means If You're Buying New

Written by Daniel Zareh, REALTOR® — licensed since 2006, serving Hamilton, Stoney Creek, Grimsby, Beamsville, Burlington, Oakville and Mississauga.
Last reviewed October 30, 2026, updated November 2, 2026. Every figure below is sourced and dated at the bottom of this article.

I get asked some version of this every week. "Is pre-construction dead?"

The honest answer is that one kind of pre-construction broke badly, and people keep applying what happened to it to every new build in the region. Those are not the same thing, and the difference is worth real money to you.

Here's what the numbers actually say.

➤ See what's on the market in Hamilton right now

Two numbers that don't agree with each other

New condo sales across the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area doubled from a year ago, to 760 units in the third quarter of 2026. That's the second straight quarter of growth.

Sounds like a recovery. Now look at where it's recovering from.

GTA new condo market	Then	Now
New condo sales, full year	~29,000 (2021)	Just over 2,100 (2025)
Condo apartment starts	27,842 (2023)	9,885 (2025)
Asking price, unsold new condos	$956 psf (2018)	$1,157 psf (Q3 2026)

Sales fell about 93% from 2021 to 2025. Starts fell roughly two thirds in two years.

So 760 units in a quarter isn't a market coming back. It's a market that stopped falling. Both of those things are true at once, and which one you hear depends on whose headline you read.

The Province now says the same thing in its own words. Ontario's fall economic statement, tabled October 29, 2026, calls the condominium segment the weakest part of the market, "especially in the Greater Toronto Area, where lower investor demand and unsold units have held back prices." Here's the rest of that forecast and what it means locally.

What actually broke

This part is the useful part, because it tells you what to avoid rather than what to fear.

Asking prices on unsold new condos went from $956 a square foot in 2018 to $1,485 in 2022. That's a 55% increase in four years. A lot of that wasn't demand. It was construction cost inflation getting passed through and then read as value growth by everybody in the chain, buyers included.

At the peak, some projects were launching 35% to 40% above comparable resale units. The long-run normal is closer to 15%. When a buyer pays a 40% premium today for a unit delivering in five years, that buyer needs five years of price growth just to break even on the premium alone.

Then rates went up and the gap stopped being theoretical. The appraisal came in under the purchase price, the rent didn't cover the carry, and the exit that was supposed to be there on closing wasn't.

Industry analyst Ben Myers, who has tracked this market for years, argues the damage runs deeper than the condo collapse of the late 1980s. I think that's defensible, and I'd add one thing: the product that broke was a very specific one. A small investor-oriented unit in a tall tower, sold on an assumption about the exit rather than on what the thing is worth to live in.

What's getting built instead

Here's the shift almost nobody mentions to buyers.

Rental made up about 26% of apartment starts in the Toronto area in 2023. From January to July 2026 it was roughly 61%. In three years, purpose-built rental went from a quarter of the pipeline to most of it.

That matters to you in two ways.

If you own a condo and rent it out, your competition is changing. New purpose-built rental often asks 10% to 15% more than a comparable investor-owned condo once you add parking and locker fees. Better amenities, professional management, no individual landlord. That's a real competitor at the top of the rental market, and it sets a ceiling on what a tired investor condo can ask.

And if you're a buyer, fewer condos being started now means fewer condos finishing in 2029 and 2030. The 5,127 completed and unsold units sitting in the GTHA today are the tail end of the last boom, not a sign of what's coming. That inventory is down 7% from last quarter's record, though it's still 40% above where it was a year ago. It gets absorbed. What replaces it is thinner.

I'm not going to tell you that guarantees a price spike. Population growth and borrowing costs will have more to say about it than supply will. But a pipeline this quiet does not usually produce a glut four years later.

If you're buying pre-construction in Hamilton, Stoney Creek or Niagara West

Most of what I sell on the new-build side isn't the product described above. It's stacked towns, rear-lane towns and ground-related homes in Beamsville, Stoney Creek, Grimsby, St. Catharines and out through Halton and Peel. Different product, different buyer, different maths.

Why the distinction holds up:

• Parking. A two-bedroom town with its own parking rents and resells in these markets. A two-bedroom unit without parking is a much harder conversation here than it is downtown. This is the single thing I see buyers underweight.
• The buyer pool at the other end. A stacked town in Beamsville gets sold to somebody who wants to live in Beamsville. A 480-square-foot unit in a 60-storey tower mostly gets sold to another investor, and that pool is the one that disappeared.
• The premium is usually smaller. Low-rise in these markets hasn't been launching at 40% over resale. Check it anyway. That's the number that decides whether the deal works.

Things I'd want answered in writing before you sign anything:

• The occupancy date, and what the builder can do to move it.
• Whether parking is included or extra, and the same for a locker.
• The deposit structure, and whether your deposit is protected.
• Assignment rights, the fee to use them, and whether the builder can refuse.
• The cap on development charges and levies at closing. Uncapped, this is the line that surprises people.
• What comparable resale in that town is actually selling for today, not what the brochure compares it to.

Just so you have the full picture: I can get most of that answered in a phone call to the builder. You shouldn't have to chase it.

If you already bought pre-construction and it closes soon

Deal with it early rather than at closing. The two things to confirm are what the unit appraises at today and what your actual monthly carry looks like at current rates, including fees and taxes.

One honest signal from the market: bulk sales, where a buyer takes a block of units at once, averaged $763 a square foot in the third quarter. Units sold individually averaged $1,045. That spread tells you what wholesale pricing looks like when a builder needs to clear inventory, and it's the floor you'd be competing against if you had to sell into that market.

If there's a gap between your purchase price and today's value, there are usually more options three months out than three weeks out. At the end of the day, early is the only advantage available in that situation.

Common questions

Is pre-construction a bad investment now?
Not as a category. The specific trade that stopped working was buying a small tower unit at a big premium to resale and counting on appreciation to cover it. If a deal works on what you'd pay for the finished home today, it can still make sense.

Are new condo prices coming down?
Asking prices on unsold GTHA inventory were $1,157 per square foot in Q3, down about 4% from a year earlier. So softening, not collapsing. Incentives are doing more of the work than list prices are.

Should I wait for the shortage everyone's predicting?
I'd be careful with that plan. The thin pipeline is real, but the timing isn't knowable and you still have to live somewhere in the meantime. I went through why waiting on supply is a weak strategy in my piece on Hamilton housing supply.

Why do pre-con towns look healthier than pre-con condos?
Mostly the end buyer. Ground-related homes sell to people who want to live in them, so they don't depend on investor demand showing up at closing.

Do these GTA numbers include Hamilton?
Yes. The quarterly condo figures cover the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area. The rental-share figure is for the Toronto area specifically.

Before you sign a worksheet

Send me the project you're looking at and the floor plan or price list if you have one. I'll come back with three things: what comparable resale in that area is selling for right now, the premium you'd be paying over it, and the questions I'd put to that builder before you commit.

And if the numbers don't work, I'll tell you. I've talked clients out of worksheets. I just want to make sure you're making the right decision, and a pre-construction deal is a long time to be wrong about.

Call or text 416-276-0052   Email: daniel@zarehhomes.com

Or fill in the form below with the project name and I'll send back the comparables.

Keep reading

• Ontario's own forecast now has prices falling in 2026 — what it means locally
• Benchmark Towns in Beamsville — a look at a low-rise pre-construction project up close
• Winona County in Stoney Creek — what's being built and who it suits
• Hamilton housing supply, and why waiting for more homes is a weak plan
• Oakville's housing pipeline against its 2031 target — approvals aren't supply
• Hamilton homes for sale — live listings and market data

Daniel Zareh is a licensed REALTOR® with over 20 years of experience serving Hamilton, Stoney Creek, Grimsby, Binbrook, Beamsville, Burlington, Oakville and Mississauga. Q3-2026 figures — 760 sales, 5,127 completed and unsold units, $1,157 and $1,045 and $763 per square foot — are from Urbanation's Q3-2026 Condominium Market Survey as reported October 21, 2026, and cover the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area; the $1,045 figure excludes bulk and luxury transactions. The 2021 and 2025 sales figures are Altus Group data, and the starts, psf history, launch-premium and rental-share figures are from Ben Myers' State of Housing 2026 analysis published October 14, 2026, drawing on Bullpen Consulting and CMHC data. The Ontario forecast quotation is from Chapter 2 of the 2026 Ontario Fall Economic Statement, tabled October 29, 2026. Figures change quarterly.